Opinion: Just-In, A Killing That Kicked Off Trudeau's Campaign

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attended the G20 summit hosted by India last month. However, no bilateral meeting took place between the allies as tensions flared amid the assassination of a prominent Sikh leader and India’s “potential link” to the incident. (Image Source: Al Jazeera)

Five years ago, the Trudeau family made a trip to India. The state visit intended to strengthen diplomatic ties, economic cooperation, and promote empowerment among women. In the end, the seven-day voyage – which included the Trudeaus posing by the Taj Mahal – turned into what many call a diplomatic blunder. While his fellow Canadians criticized Prime Minister Trudeau’s over-the-line “Indianness,” the Indian government under the flagship of Narendra Modi found itself in an impasse over Canada’s silence over a once dormant separatist movement – which now nourishes itself on Canadian soil.

Flashforward to the present, Justin Trudeau, now isolated – both in domestic and political life – claims to have “credible evidence” linking India to an ongoing murder investigation of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh activist (terrorist for India). A diplomatic tit-for-tat ensues with expulsion of diplomats on both sides, cautious travel advisories, and rifts growing among Indian diaspora in Canada. That being said, Trudeau has gained the world’s attention for now, in what can be considered as an ongoing buildup of a “rally-around the flag” scenario in playbook of global politics.

Rally-around the flag, simply termed as “rally effect,” is an environment that allows leaders to gain public support in critical times.

Famous examples include the 9/11 attacks, when U.S. President George W. Bush’s approval ratings jumped from 51% on Sept. 7th to 86% by the end of 2001; or the time when British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher enjoyed 59% of public support at the peak Falkland Wars, a 19% increase of ratings.

Given the historical trends, Trudeau’s plea to India for cooperation to “ensure accountability and justice,” most recently at the U.N General Assembly remains a ploy to create a diversion intended at boosting a rapidly declining support on home turf.

According to data shared by the non-profit Angus Reid Institute, Trudeau’s approval ratings have seen a steep decline since the 2019 elections, now standing at 33%.

And there are, of course, reasons underlining the falling popularity of Canada’s second-youngest prime minister, with post-pandemic inflation and a housing crisis leading many Canadians to question Trudeau’s leadership.

As recent data published by Statistics Canada suggests, the annual Consumer Price Index across the country increased by 4% in August, with food, shelter, and gasoline prices witnessing no further decline. Frustrations rising from unaffordable housing prices – which have climbed consecutively after Trudeau’s re-election – are also giving the opposition an edge for upcoming elections.

Current projections show the Conservative Party of Canada leading with 38% of popular votes and 174 seats in the Parliament. However, as of September 24, the same polls indicate a rising popularity of Trudeau’s Labor Party in both areas, although their odds of winning remain significantly low.

Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen, made it to India’s wanted list after reportedly organizing an unofficial referendum for an independent Sikh state of Khalistan in India (Image Source: CNN)

But despite his fallout with a majority of Canadians, Trudeau’s jibe at India seems to be appeasing his core voter base: a faction of Canada’s Sikh community demanding Khalistan, a proposed state carved out of the Indian state of Punjab and surrounding regions.

The deceased Nijjar, a Canadian citizen, was accused by Indian authorities of creating a referendum on Khalistan. A year after his extradition request was turned down by Trudeau, two masked gunmen fatally shot him in Vancouver, an event presented by Trudeau as an attack on Canada’s sovereignty.

Whereas Khalistan remains a sensitive topic to Indian authorities, its advocates have often received favorable treatment from Trudeau. For instance, during his 2018 state visit, Canada’s High Commissioner invited a convicted member of an illegal Sikh outfit, for which Trudeau had to bear the costs by rescinding the invite and issuing an apology.

Trudeau’s growing silence on separatist movement – besides balancing ties with a key group of voters – can also be explained by political alliances determining the Labor Party’s survival. The party relies on the support of the New Democratic Party (NDP) till 2025. The party’s leader Jagmeet Singh, shares a history of associating with Sikh nationalists and has condemned 1984 Sikh riots as a “genocide.”

Proposed maps for an independent Sikh state of Khalistan often include the Indian state of Punjab and other neighboring regions. Some maps have also considered the Pakistani province of Punjab as part of Khalistan. (Image Source: Sikhs For Justice)

Foreign policy expert Shoon Murray points out that a “diversionary use of force,” often appears in face of threats. “The logic is simple: if the public rallies around its leader in the face of external threats, then the possibility exists that politicians will intentionally create crises,” writes Murray in her study.

For the liberal leader, however, turning a diplomatic row into a public affair also paves a way to compensate for other recent geopolitical shortcomings that have managed to draw sharp criticism from a growing opposition.

Conservative opposition leaders, citing intelligence sources, raised concerns about possible Chinese interference in 2019 and 2021 elections, both in which Trudeau’s Labor Party triumphed amid low approval ratings. Despite ordering an investigation, Trudeau continues to maintain a calm over the opposition’s uproar.

Moreover, Trudeau also came under pressure after reports surfaced of unauthorized Chinese police stations on Canadian soil earlier this summer. Although the police stations harassed Canada’s Chinese population, no statements citing “violation of sovereignty” surfaced from the prime minister’s office.

Regardless of the outcomes of Nijjar’s murder investigation, Trudeau’s success in rallying wider support before the 2025 election hangs in balance. Although Tudeau’s allegations have managed to revive the Khalistan debate on global news platforms and on social media and led allies to call an Indian cooperation on the matter, his sweet-turned-sour affair with India has so far kept the Labor Party’s prospects at polls far from enough.